Our 2026 mid-term general election is November 3rd. That election will determine our 5th District House representative and one of our US Senators. It’s not too early to think about this election now, because the primary elections to determine who will be on that November ballot are now underway. A primary election vote may influence the general election outcome more than your November vote does.
August 4th is the final day to vote in either primary.
US voting participation is below the average for modern democracies. The 2020 US Census found that only about 3 out of 4 US citizens old enough to vote had registered in 2020. Women are slightly more likely to register to vote (74.9%) than men are (72.2%). Women are also a little more likely to cast a vote (61% of registered voters) than men (57.4%).
In Virginia, about 68 to 70% of voting age adults register to vote, putting Virginia 21st in the nation for voter registration. Sadly, only 66% to 70% of those registered voters made it to the polls in presidential election years. That’s under half (46-48%) of Virginia’s voting age population participating in presidential elections. Turnout in other elections is much lower. It was only 48.8% of all registered voters in the 2022 midterms. Thus, only 33.3% of Virginia adults (1 in 3) voted in 2022 US House of Representatives election. The 2022 5th District winner (Bob Good) received 58% of the votes cast, but that was fewer than 1 in 5 of our 5th District adults.
Some of you are missing every other opportunity to participate in selecting our representative in the House and some opportunities to vote on our senator. The Virginia Public Access Project says that only 39% of Virginia’s registered voters cast ballots in all four major elections from 2020 to 2024 (federal and state). That’s slightly more than 1 in 4 voting age Virginians taking this civic duty seriously.
Nottoway County’s voter registration rate runs a little above the Virginia state average. Unfortunately, Nottoway residents tend vote at slightly lower rates than the Virginia average. The only age groups where Nottoway’s turnout exceeds the Virginia average is residents aged 18-20 and 60-80. Nottoway’s lowest voter turnout groups are (1) ages 20-40, the group that will live with the election results the longest, and (2) over 85 years old. Rural communities have lower than average turnout among voters over 80, because transportation to the polls is more difficult in rural areas than in urban areas.
Unfortunately, older high school civics textbooks taught us that our government has three “equal” branches: Legislative, Executive, and Judicial. The Founders would have disagreed. They devoted half of our original Constitution to defining the Legislature’s powers and duties, making our US Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) the centerpiece of government of the people, by the people, and for the people. In contrast, the Executive Branch got 15% of the Constitution’s real estate and the Judicial Branch got only 7%. Federal congressional and senate races are more important than the presidential race.
Our simple-majority wins voting system (also called a “plurality” or “first past the post” because the winner does not have to get a majority of all votes cast) works best with a two-person race. This is why we now have a “duopoly” where only two parties effectively have a lock on the ballots. Primary elections and party conventions winnow down a larger field to one candidate per party. Since January 1st, 2024, Virginia law has required political parties to use state-run open primary elections instead of conventions to give more voters a voice in determining who is on the November ballot.
Virgina is one of twenty US states that does not register voters by party. In primaries, you can vote whichever party ballot you prefer. Unfortunately, primary election turnouts range from 8 to 15% most years, with peaks at 17% in presidential primaries. Only 1 in 10 registered voters are determining who you will be able to vote for in most general elections! These tend to be the super-engaged and most partisan voters. They are what I call the “ever-so-much-more-so” voters, and the winner will be the “ever-so-much-more-so” candidate. If you don’t vote in the primary, don’t complain about lacking centrist candidates on the general election ballot. In districts which lean toward a particular party, the winner of that party’s primary will win the general election—so the primary is the “real” election. In 2024, our current representative, John McGuire, beat incumbent Bob Good by only 374 votes in the Republican primary—and won the general election by 65,335 votes.
How do you decide which party’s primary ballot to vote? If you consider yourself a party member, that choice is likely your own party’s ballot. Opponents of open partisan primaries like we have in Virginia claim that some people “cross over” to vote for the least-electable candidate in the opposing party. Most voters are smart enough to realize that sabotages our government, not just the other party: we may be stuck with that governing person for the next two, four, or six years.
I suggest that you vote like George Washington would. Our first president thought that political parties were dangerous. If he voted today, he would make a list of all the primary candidates WITHOUT their party affiliation and methodically research each on the issues and on their record. He would look for candidates of high moral character who placed their constituents and country above themselves. Then he’d ask for the ballot containing those names. If he wanted to vote for a Republican Senate candidate and a Democrat House candidate, he’d have a problem, because these races are not on the same ballot. Mr. Washington would then have to choose which race was most critical for our future. He’d wonder why we don’t have all the primary candidates on the same ballot, like some other states do. But he would not let a political party tell him how to vote. He would also vote FOR a candidate instead of AGAINST a candidate.
Please celebrate the 250th year of our Declaration of Independence by voting in the 2026 primary. And vote like George Washington voted.
"Virginia voter turnout varies a lot across localities. Check your local voter turnout compared to Virginia's average at Election Insights - Virginia Counties."
(Note: This article was first published in The crew Burkeville Journal by Kristin Farry (Guest Columnist)
